How to predict hits

Two elements can be relevant for predicting a hit song. These are: The “velocity of the tagging” and editorial judgement. It is the result of an interesting analysis run by a company based in London called Shazam. The first aspect is related to the level of engagement between artist and audience and how quick it is their judgement in terms of tag data per day. Therefore, this also shows that the amount of interest expressed could be less relevant in comparison with the timing of response.

The process starts in choosing a leading indicator for the songs to be considered potentially succesful, providing a report of tag data per day who have been received by the platform. After that, the evidence shows that there is a relationship between the impact of the songs in commercial and the rise of them in Shazam chart. Once reached the number one position, a direct consequence was provided by the climbing of Billboard’s Hot 100 classify: This result happened for several artists that gained positions during previous year,  as Lana Del Ray, Frank Ocean…and it’s the consequence of an accurate analysis about data and metrics measuring the commercial viability of the song itself. There will be other predictions for the next year and there is already a list of the possible hits. In addition, record labels are using this system for testing new tracks and the tags can also be driven by TV as in the example of “Too Cloose”. Infact the evidence shows that happened a significant increase from 10 tag a day to ten thousands in a single day after being featured in an ad for Microsoft IE9.  “Somebody I used to know” was included in the prediction according to the data provided by the company and some songs included in the report were not still commercially released.

It’s worth to say that this tool can de defined as a new business model. This could be very useful for labels that feel the importance to understand the target audience and to decide where to put maketing efforts.

Click to access Top-Tagged-Songs-and-Artists.pdf

White girl rapping… the next bit hit?

Give me one famous rapper who is a white girl. Do you know any? 


Human beings like to have leaders in many things they do, especially in music. In the early 90s very few white guys dared to get up on stage and rap. A few years later, once Eminem was out and getting big, there where white rappers all over the place, because they finally had a leader. Eminem became the trademark for white rapping. If you ask any average person in the street, who is the white male icon for rapping, they will answer Eminem. 

Girls rapping is slowly becoming a new trend. There are many female black people rapping and a few of them are already world wide famous. But no white girl… “Yes but white girls can’t rap”. Are you kidding me? That sounds oddly familiar to what people said before Eminem came out. “White guys can’t rap”. And he proved them wrong. There’s a gap in the music industry for the white female icon of rapping.

There’s a few white girls on youtube rapping, but none of them are real rappers. I’m not talking about a girl with a good voice and rapping skills. Nor am I talking about cheesy rap and wearing all kinds of popstyle clothing to attract attention. The girl I’m talking about, she’s got to have the “don’t fuck with me” attitude, she’s got the guts to stand up and get criticized and she dresses like a rapper in her every day life. She raps in her everyday life, and that’s all she does. In other words, she’s got the identity of a rapper, and she’s got something to say.